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Exciting News!
I'm delighted to announce that @electionmapsuk is now sponsored by Navigate Politics (@NavigatePol) - a provider of top-tier political monitoring & intelligence tools.
This partnership provides the long-term stability …
Reform's first 2 ever council defences were tonight, and they've lost both of them.
Trevethin & Penygarn (Torfaen) Council By-Election Result:
➡️ RFM: 47.0% (New)
🌹 LAB: 26.6% (-49.2)
🙋 IND: 12.0% (New)
🙋 IND: 11.7% (New)
🌍 GRN: 2.6% (New)
No CON (-24.1) as previous.
Reform GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2022.
Rochester East & Warren Wood (Medway) Council By-Election Result:
➡️ RFM: 36.7% (New)
🌹 LAB: 32.9% (-22.0)
🌳 CON: 20.2% (-5.8)
🌍 GRN: 5.9% (-6.3)
🔶 LDM: 3.4% (-3.4)
🏰 HER: 0.9% (New)
Reform GAIN from Labour (x2).
Changes w/ 2023.
🚨👀😱 || Hearing there's going to be a poll with a HUGE sample size out at 10PM tonight complete with seat-by-seat forecasting.
Trust me, you're not going to want to miss this one 🥵🥰🥵🥰
(it's the exit poll)
In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
Right to Leave: 32% (-3)
Wrong to Leave: 56% (+4)
Via @YouGov, 9-10 Nov.
Changes w/ 1-2 Nov.
Largest EVER lead for 'Wrong to Leave' (polled since…
What *that* 39pt lead @PeoplePolling poll could look like in a General Election:
LAB: 523 (+321)
LDM: 57 (+46)
SNP: 41 (-7)
CON: 5 (-360)
PLC: 4 (=)
GRN: 1 (=)
Labour Majority of 396.
Changes w/ GE2019.
What *that* @RedfieldWilton poll could look like in a General Election:
LAB: 515 (+313)
LDM: 47 (+36)
SNP: 42 (-6)
CON: 22 (-343)
PLC: 4 (=)
GRN: 1 (=)
Labour Majority of 380.
Changes w/ GE2019.
What *That* YouGov poll could look like in a General Election:
LAB: 498 (+296)
CON: 61 (-304)
SNP: 36 (-12)
LDM: 29 (+18)
PLC: 4 (=)
Others: 2 (+2)
GRN: 1 (=)
NI: 18
Labour Majority of 346
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 54% (+9)
CON: 21% (-7)
LDM: 7% (-2)
GRN: 6% (-1)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 28-29 Sep.
Changes w/ 23-25 Sep.
THIRTY THREE POINT LEAD.
Do you think that Boris Johnson is doing well or badly as Prime Minister?
Well: 23% (-6)
Badly: 71% (+7)
Via @YouGov, 20 Dec.
Changes w/ 22 Nov.
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- Organic base — far more followers than accounts it follows.
- Verified account.
- Established account (9+ years old).
- 5.13% engagement — above the ~2.2% typical for a X account this size.
Heuristic estimate from engagement, follower ratios, account age & growth — a screening signal, not a guarantee.
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